Politics Prediction Markets

Live Polymarket odds on political events: elections, nominations, policy and leadership changes. Real-money probabilities updated continuously.

Top Politics markets on Polymarket by volume
Market	Volume
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028	$1.29B
Presidential Election Winner 2028	$714.4M
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028	$710.2M
Next French Presidential Election	$146.6M
Netanyahu out by...?	$124.5M
Venezuela leader end of 2026?	$98.1M
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	$72.6M
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?	$72.2M
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?	$44.2M
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	$43.7M
California Governor Election Winner	$41.7M
Iran leader end of 2026?	$40.1M
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?	$37.4M
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	$35.7M
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?	$29.5M
Putin out as President of Russia by...?	$28.3M
Iran leadership change by...?	$27.0M
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026	$26.9M
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	$26.9M
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	$23.9M
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms	$19.9M
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?	$18.0M
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?	$16.6M
Which party will win the House in 2026?	$14.9M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	$14.3M

Updated 2026-10-08