No 97% chance. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — live odds, $43.2M volume, resolves 2027-01-01. Trade on PredyX.
Current outcome probabilities for Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Outcome
Probability
24h change
Volume
Yes
3%
0.0%
—
No
97%
0.0%
—
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
What are the current odds for Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026??
As of today, Yes at 3%, No at 97%, based on live Polymarket trading data.
When does "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" resolve?
This market resolves on January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026??
Total trading volume is $43,178,572, with $680,243 in liquidity.
How do I trade "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?"?
You can trade this Polymarket prediction market directly from your browser on PredyX — a non-custodial trading terminal with live odds, limit orders, and copy trading.
