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Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds

Climate prediction markets

Live Polymarket odds on climate outcomes, temperature records and environmental policy.

Top Climate markets on Polymarket by volume
MarketVolume
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?$348K
Natural Disaster in 2026?$248K
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?$147K
What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?$63K
What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?$56K
How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?$54K
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
$52K
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?$22K
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?$17K
Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?$16K
First snow of the 2026 season$15K
How strong will Nolo be?$13K
How strong will Rachel be?$11K
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?$10K
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 28 - October 4?$9K
How strong will Choi-wan be?$8K
Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?$8K
Surigae makes landfall in Japan?$8K
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?$7K
Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September?$7K
Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?$5K
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 28 - October 4?$3K
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)$3K
Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30?$3K
Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?$2K

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Updated 2026-10-08