Over 2.5 74% chance. What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño? — live odds, $65K volume, resolves 2027-04-01. Trade on PredyX.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 74% | 0.0% | — |
| 2.25–2.5 | 24% | 0.0% | — |
| 2.0–2.25 | 2% | 0.0% | — |
| 1.5–2.0 | 1% | 0.0% | — |
| Under 1.5 | 0% | 0.0% | — |
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No". The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.