Surigae makes landfall in Japan?

About this market

No 97% chance. Surigae makes landfall in Japan? — live odds, $9K volume, resolves 2026-10-06. Trade on PredyX.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) states in its tropical cyclone information that the center of Tropical Storm Surigae (JMA designation T2626; PAGASA local name "Queenie") made landfall on or crossed Japanese land, or publishes for T2626 a "Center position" under an "Analysis" heading whose coordinates fall on Japanese land, by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Either one is sufficient on its own. A qualifying Center position counts however briefly the center remains over land, and counts on an island of any size. "Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands. "Center position" is the field of that exact name in JMA's tropical cyclone information for T2626, and it is the only coordinate this market reads. Only a Center position given under an "Analysis" heading counts; a Center position given for a forecast hour will not be considered for resolution. JMA states each Center position in degrees and minutes with a rounded decimal in parentheses, in the form "N19 degrees 10 minutes (19.2 degrees)". Coordinates will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Where JMA publishes more than one Center position for the same analysis time, the one shown at the resolution source governs, and a position counts regardless of any accuracy qualifier JMA attaches to it. A Center position falling exactly on a coastline will be treated as on land. Only Center positions JMA publishes for T2626 and JMA's own written statements resolve this market: the line joining those positions on a track map or in a data product is a drawing, not a published Center position, and will not be considered for resolution, including where it passes over an island. Interpolation or track reconstruction by any party and landfall reports or bulletins from any other meteorological agency, will not be considered for resolution. If the drawn track crosses Japanese territory but no published Center position has coordinates on Japanese land and JMA makes no statement that the center crossed it, this market will resolve to "No". JMA's "Grade" for T2626, in the same advisory as the qualifying Center position or in effect at the time of a qualifying JMA statement, must be a tropical cyclone grade (TD, TS, STS, or TY). A crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once JMA publishes a qualifying Center position or statement, or at October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If JMA has published neither at that point, or has ceased publishing tropical cyclone information for T2626, this market will resolve to "No". No substitute data provider will be used. If JMA corrects a published Center position as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected position will be used. If JMA removes a published Center position as erroneous without replacement, the market's stated data-unavailability rule applies. Otherwise the published Center position stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published information will not be considered. Revisions published before this market resolves will be considered; revisions published after it will not be considered for resolution. Post-season best-track reanalysis will not be considered for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Center position" field under the "Analysis" heading in JMA's tropical cyclone information for T2626, at https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en. Past positions for T2626 can be viewed at https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/202626.html.en, where each Daily Satellite Image opens a page giving the position recorded at that time. That archive republishes JMA's own track data and is maintained by the National Institute of Informatics, but states position in rounded decimal degrees, so where it differs from the Center position published by JMA, the JMA value governs.