No 97% chance. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? — live odds, $5.2M volume, resolves 2027-01-01. Trade on PredyX.
Current outcome probabilities for Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Outcome
Probability
24h change
Volume
Yes
3%
0.0%
—
No
97%
0.0%
—
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
What are the current odds for Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026??
As of today, Yes at 3%, No at 97%, based on live Polymarket trading data.
When does "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?" resolve?
This market resolves on January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026??
Total trading volume is $5,154,566, with $76,231 in liquidity.
How do I trade "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?"?
You can trade this Polymarket prediction market directly from your browser on PredyX — a non-custodial trading terminal with live odds, limit orders, and copy trading.
