No 95% chance. Will Russia invade a NATO country by...? — live odds, $5.5M volume, resolves 2027-01-01. Trade on PredyX.
Current outcome probabilities for Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
Outcome
Probability
24h change
Volume
Yes
6%
0.0%
—
No
95%
0.0%
—
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
What are the current odds for Will Russia invade a NATO country by...??
As of today, Yes at 6%, No at 95%, based on live Polymarket trading data.
When does "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?" resolve?
This market resolves on January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on Will Russia invade a NATO country by...??
Total trading volume is $5,485,998, with $40,059 in liquidity.
How do I trade "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?"?
You can trade this Polymarket prediction market directly from your browser on PredyX — a non-custodial trading terminal with live odds, limit orders, and copy trading.
