December 31, 2027 15% chance. Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___? — live odds, $30K volume, resolves 2028-01-01. Trade on PredyX.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 15% | 0.0% | — |
| December 31, 2026 | 2% | 0.0% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Riemann Hypothesis, or otherwise officially declares the Riemann Hypothesis solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that the Riemann Hypothesis has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Riemann Hypothesis has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.