John Brennan 24% chance. Who will be arrested before 2027? — live odds, $468K volume, resolves 2027-01-01. Trade on PredyX.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Brennan | 24% | 0.0% | — |
| Mahmoud Khalil | 18% | 0.0% | — |
| Susan Rice | 16% | 0.0% | — |
| Lee Jun-seok | 11% | 0.0% | — |
| James Comey | 10% | 0.0% | — |
| James Clapper | 10% | 0.0% | — |
| Tom Homan | 10% | 0.0% | — |
| Brandon Johnson | 10% | 0.0% | — |
| Anthony Fauci |
| 8% |
| 0.0% |
| — |
| Candace Owens | 7% | 0.0% | — |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 7% | 0.0% | — |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 7% | 0.0% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.