Unusual Machines 53% chance. Which companies will the US take a stake in? — live odds, $195K volume, resolves 2027-01-01. Trade on PredyX.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unusual Machines | 53% | 0.0% | — |
| Anduril | 16% | 0.0% | — |
| Anthropic | 15% | 0.0% | — |
| OpenAI | 14% | 0.0% | — |
| TSMC | 14% | 0.0% | — |
| IonQ | 14% | 0.0% | — |
| Nvidia | 13% | 0.0% | — |
| Lockheed Martin | 13% | 0.0% | — |
| Eli Lilly |
| 12% |
| 0.0% |
| — |
| Micron | 11% | 0.0% | — |
| Boeing | 11% | 0.0% | — |
| Freeport-McMoRan | 9% | 0.0% | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g., a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements that do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.