No 96% chance. Plague pandemic in 2026? — live odds, $281K volume, resolves 2027-01-01. Trade on PredyX.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 0.0% | — |
| No | 96% | 0.0% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the disease or outbreak as a "pandemic". A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.