No release by October 31 65% chance. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...? — live odds, $336K volume, resolves 2026-11-01. Trade on PredyX.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No release by October 31 | 65% | 0.0% | — |
| October 27 | 17% | 0.0% | — |
| October 26 | 6% | 0.0% | — |
| October 29 | 4% | 0.0% | — |
| October 28 | 3% | 0.0% | — |
| October 31 | 2% | 0.0% | — |
| October 30 | 1% | 0.0% | — |
| October 25 | 1% | 0.0% | — |
| October 24 | 0% | 0.0% | — |
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.