June 30, 2027 9% chance. Anthropic lab leak by...? — live odds, $147K volume, resolves 2027-07-01. Trade on PredyX.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 9% | 0.0% | — |
| December 31, 2026 | 3% | 0.0% | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required. Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.